This year's pattern of the start of the LRC is very different than last year!! Last October for the first part of the LRC cycle we had 3 storms in the month of October with a total of 2+" of rain....let's fast forward to THIS year's start of the LRC and we've had .16-.25" Now, can things change before the LRC cycle sets? Yes it can, but it's not a good start. If you are NOT familiar with the LRC, it's a way to predict long term weather by using a "cycling" method. Each year around Oct. 6th a brand new pattern starts and continues to "cycle" throughout the upcoming winter/spring/summer and into the following fall.
Remember last fall was pretty wet. By using the cycling method of the LRC we could predict an above normal winter snowfall with many storms (record setting # of blizzard warnings) and a wet spring, which all forecasted accurately. This fall has been very dry and if we don't see a pattern chance to wetter weather before the LRC cycle sets, this could be a dry winter and lead to worsening drought conditions for spring/summer. We still have 2-3 weeks before the LRC will become more clear so let's have patience and hope for some wetter weather.
On a positive note, look at the healthy precip amounts in Western ND!! They are in some bad drought conditions out west so this helps!! Keep in mind, using the LRC, a storm system very similar to this one will cycle back through a few times this winter. Will it be exactly the same? NO.....but we know it will be in our area and once the LRC is set, we can give specific dates that will occur.