-61 F in Russia...Arctic air on the move? Our snow chances?

Here is a look at our snowfall outlook based on our ECMWF (European)  model over the next 10 days.  It's showing the main storm track to our south with the heaviest snowfall into areas of SD, MN and IA.  Could this shift north? It's possible but not probable.  We've been eyeing Arctic air just to our north and over in Russia.  It is -61 F in Yakutusk Russia this morning!  YIKES!!  Although our computer models not quite picking up on some of the Arctic air spilling into our area, there are other signals this will be happening soon.  Stratospheric warming is occurring  and this often causes the PV (Polar Vortex) to split and drive the Arctic air southward.  Also,we are looking for blocking in the upper atmosphere over Greenland.  We are starting to see signs of this occurring soon.  Stay tuned as February could be a much colder month than January has been. 


Chief Meteorologist,

Dean Wysocki